Probably some truth in what you say about the step-ups but the range of motion is not as deep so it's somewhat feasible to be stronger than you think. But the unilateral aspect cancels this somewhat. You'll get it down.

On the deads I would recommend, because of your back, to test the waters. Do your regular set with your regular loading increment and then do a single or double at the heavier weight you wanted to see how it feels before your commit to 15 reps. I trust what you say about having the form down but sometimes the next day gives you an "update" from your back. Normally such jumps shouldn't be a problem but you are kind of in a state of rehab.

I know that you started with 220 or so on deads and this weight is much lower. But that was with a different technique so that the impact of various muscle groups changes and no doubt the metabolic demands change. In general, I'd advocate for sticking with your planned increment and not making sudden surges. Deadlift can place very great demands on recovery in general. You may be feeling stronger in terms of intensity but that doesn't mean your body is ready for a sudden increase in workload. These kinds of changes can cause sudden stalls in progress.

If you've been going up 20 lbs and progressing that is one thing. But if your used to 10 lbs that is another. I'm just speaking in generalities because of course I can't predict what might happen. And a person can always take off a day here or there if they do too much.

I'm glad to hear that your back feels fine. That has to be a load off your mind.

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If you act sanctimonious I will just list out your logical fallacies until you get pissed off and spew blasphemous remarks.